Do It At the Ballot Box

What a difference a year makes.  Just a little over a year ago pundits were predicting the demise of the GOP.  Now, control of the House will be the goal for the Republican party this November.  Even the Senate is not out of reach, though actually winning control of either chamber will be a challenge.

In the House, a net gain of 41 gains control, and in the Senate 10 seats must change hands.  Figure one or two more party switches and the number is less than 40 in the House.   And the raw numbers show the possibilities.  There are Democrats in 49 districts that McCain carried in 2008, plus there will probably be three or four open seats that Obama carried that will be in play.  The GOP will loss three or four so that means a pick up of around 45 is needed.  In the current environment, this is eminently doable. In fact, if you include districts where McCain was within 4 points, there are over 60 Democrat seats that are potentially in play.  It will happen.

While everyone seems to think the Senate will be more difficult, the chances may not be much worse.  Things will have to break right, but there are ten seats seriously in play.  While the Republicans are to defending two more seats this year, 18-16,  it now looks probable that the  GOP will hold all of their seats.  A pick up of seven or eight of the Democrat seats appears likely with probable wins in Arkansas, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Colorado, North Dakota, Delaware, and possible victories in Illinois, Wisconsin,  and Connecticut .  Running the table in those states puts the Senate at 50-50.  The win to break the tie will be more difficult, but possible in Washington State where the incumbent Patty Murray won with only a 5% margin last election.   That would put the republicans over the top. 

But that is not the only scenario for the GOP to gain control. First, figure that Lieberman may changes parties if the Republicans reach 50.  How sweet would that revenge be?  Then there is the ailing 86 year old Lautenberg who may have to step down, and whose replacement would be appointed by the newly elected Republican governor.  But here is my prediction: the conservative tide rides so high, swelled by resentment for the Health Care bill, that both New York and California also fall into Republican hands, and the GOP ends up with a 53-47 majority, including Lieberman.