What a difference a year makes. Just a little over a year ago pundits were predicting the demise of the GOP. Now, control of the House will be the goal for the Republican party this November. Even the Senate is not out of reach, though actually winning control of either chamber will be a challenge.
In the House, a net gain of 41 gains control, and in the Senate 10 seats must change hands. Figure one or two more party switches and the number is less than 40 in the House. And the raw numbers show the possibilities. There are Democrats in 49 districts that McCain carried in 2008, plus there will probably be three or four open seats that Obama carried that will be in play. The GOP will loss three or four so that means a pick up of around 45 is needed. In the current environment, this is eminently doable. In fact, if you include districts where McCain was within 4 points, there are over 60 Democrat seats that are potentially in play. It will happen.
While everyone seems to think the Senate will be more difficult, the chances may not be much worse. Things will have to break right, but there are ten seats seriously in play. While the Republicans are to defending two more seats this year, 18-16, it now looks probable that the GOP will hold all of their seats. A pick up of seven or eight of the Democrat seats appears likely with probable wins in Arkansas, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Colorado, North Dakota, Delaware, and possible victories in Illinois, Wisconsin, and Connecticut . Running the table in those states puts the Senate at 50-50. The win to break the tie will be more difficult, but possible in Washington State where the incumbent Patty Murray won with only a 5% margin last election. That would put the republicans over the top.
But that is not the only scenario for the GOP to gain control. First, figure that Lieberman may changes parties if the Republicans reach 50. How sweet would that revenge be? Then there is the ailing 86 year old Lautenberg who may have to step down, and whose replacement would be appointed by the newly elected Republican governor. But here is my prediction: the conservative tide rides so high, swelled by resentment for the Health Care bill, that both New York and California also fall into Republican hands, and the GOP ends up with a 53-47 majority, including Lieberman.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Learning From Coaches
I would like to write a book about what kids learn from sports. The title would be, "All the Life Lessons We Learn from Sports," with the subtitle, "That the Coaches Never Intended to Teach." As a parent who has been through a lot of sports, (I'm including dance along with traditional sports), with three children, it is amazing what difficult situations they have had to grapple with. (Disclosure: I have coached multiple sports through the middle school level for over ten years and am guilty of some of the things I complain about).
Most coaches are not honest about their goals and expectations. Especially at the non-varsity level, when you hear a coach say that winning is not the most important thing, and then watch some players sit on the bench game after game, those kids on the bench think that winning is the most important thing, and that the coach is a not quite honest. I have also seen coaches make promises they can't keep, trying to encourage the less talented kids, "If you'll just do so and so, you'll get into the game." But somehow the game comes and goes and nothing changes.
The most common lie is that hard work pays off. Now, sure, we want to instill this idea into our kids, but it turns out that this is only true for those whose hard work produces superior results. If hard work means you're still only the 9th best player on the basketball team, you probably won't see the court except in mop up time. And it turns out that at work, the same thing is true. If you are the hardest working salesman, but only the 9th best producer, you don't get the big bonus, so this teaches a good life lesson. (The trick there is to work different, not harder).
Many kids, who are not the stars and the starters, can come away from sports learning that life is unfair, that you can't take at face value what you're told, and to experience great disappointment and frustration. These really are valuable life lessons. Plus, they learn to figure out for themselves what they enjoy without external praise, to be confident about who they are rather they can do for others. Under the "makes you stronger if it doesn't kill you" category, they can emerge wiser, more self aware, and more confident about what is important in life.
These examples only touch the surface of how coaches often teach the opposite of what they imagine. But with good parental involvement, everything can be turned to a positive.
Most coaches are not honest about their goals and expectations. Especially at the non-varsity level, when you hear a coach say that winning is not the most important thing, and then watch some players sit on the bench game after game, those kids on the bench think that winning is the most important thing, and that the coach is a not quite honest. I have also seen coaches make promises they can't keep, trying to encourage the less talented kids, "If you'll just do so and so, you'll get into the game." But somehow the game comes and goes and nothing changes.
The most common lie is that hard work pays off. Now, sure, we want to instill this idea into our kids, but it turns out that this is only true for those whose hard work produces superior results. If hard work means you're still only the 9th best player on the basketball team, you probably won't see the court except in mop up time. And it turns out that at work, the same thing is true. If you are the hardest working salesman, but only the 9th best producer, you don't get the big bonus, so this teaches a good life lesson. (The trick there is to work different, not harder).
Many kids, who are not the stars and the starters, can come away from sports learning that life is unfair, that you can't take at face value what you're told, and to experience great disappointment and frustration. These really are valuable life lessons. Plus, they learn to figure out for themselves what they enjoy without external praise, to be confident about who they are rather they can do for others. Under the "makes you stronger if it doesn't kill you" category, they can emerge wiser, more self aware, and more confident about what is important in life.
These examples only touch the surface of how coaches often teach the opposite of what they imagine. But with good parental involvement, everything can be turned to a positive.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Remember the Swine Flu Crisis?
Or Lessons In How Well Our Government Will Be Able to Run health Care
I completely forget about it until the WSJ ran a story today, The Flu Season That Fizzled. While the article spoke of the lack of severity of the H1N1 flu this past flu season, it failed to comment on what should be the big story. How could the experts be so wrong? These government run or sponsored experts, who so badly handled Swine Flu, should be put in charge of our entire health care system?
Do you remember the hysteria? Pandemic! Large death toll! Actually, the WHO and the CDC and everyone who has a budget that depends on the worst possible news, made H1N1 sound worse than they knew it to be. The official predictions by health experts, very wrong as it turns out, of 90,000 deaths in the US is not much more than twice the normal number of fatalities from the flu each year.
BUT they were still miserably wrong. Lose your job in the private sector wrong. It has been a completely normal, perhaps even subnormal year in terms of deaths from flu.
Now this season's "pandemic" was expected. Last year when H1N1 reappeared, the warning went out, and the announcement of a huge vaccine program was made.
Ahhhh, the vaccine. Massive doses were being produced under government auspices. And how did that work out? Good thing the H1N1 was a bust or we'd have been it big trouble. Rather than massive doses we had massive shortages. By October, when the 40 million doses were supposed to be ready, less than 6 million doses were shipped. Barely ten per cent?
The predictions were very wrong. Vaccine planning and production was criminally inept. Do we really want these kinds of people in charge of our entire health care when they can't manage a small bit of it?
I completely forget about it until the WSJ ran a story today, The Flu Season That Fizzled. While the article spoke of the lack of severity of the H1N1 flu this past flu season, it failed to comment on what should be the big story. How could the experts be so wrong? These government run or sponsored experts, who so badly handled Swine Flu, should be put in charge of our entire health care system?
Do you remember the hysteria? Pandemic! Large death toll! Actually, the WHO and the CDC and everyone who has a budget that depends on the worst possible news, made H1N1 sound worse than they knew it to be. The official predictions by health experts, very wrong as it turns out, of 90,000 deaths in the US is not much more than twice the normal number of fatalities from the flu each year.
BUT they were still miserably wrong. Lose your job in the private sector wrong. It has been a completely normal, perhaps even subnormal year in terms of deaths from flu.
Now this season's "pandemic" was expected. Last year when H1N1 reappeared, the warning went out, and the announcement of a huge vaccine program was made.
Ahhhh, the vaccine. Massive doses were being produced under government auspices. And how did that work out? Good thing the H1N1 was a bust or we'd have been it big trouble. Rather than massive doses we had massive shortages. By October, when the 40 million doses were supposed to be ready, less than 6 million doses were shipped. Barely ten per cent?
The predictions were very wrong. Vaccine planning and production was criminally inept. Do we really want these kinds of people in charge of our entire health care when they can't manage a small bit of it?
Subscribe to:
FEED ME
